7/19/2018

TSMC's performance in the second half of the year will rise sharply: each processor is the focus

TSMC's revenue in April-June continued to decline, which caused investors to worry that the impact of the off-season cycle in the first half of the year, smartphone shipments were not as expected, and the collapse of the digital currency market also led to the decline of ASIC chips, affecting the performance of TSMC. However, in the two quarters of the second half of 2018, TSMC's Q3 and Q4 quarter revenues are expected to continue to grow, mainly due to the smart phone season in the second half of the year, Apple will mass produce 7nm A12 chips, Huawei HiSili will also launch 7nm Kirin 980 chip, NVIDIA's next-generation GPU will also be shipped in Q4.

In the past June, TSMC's revenue decreased by 13% from the previous month. The total revenue in Q2 decreased by 6%. The revenue was NT$233.28 billion, equivalent to US$7.63 billion. The decline was mainly due to the bite mainland mining machine. The chip and NVIDIA's GPU chip orders declined. However, in the second half of the year, TSMC's revenue will continue to rise. Digitimes quoted industry insiders as saying that the processors used in the new iPhone and Huawei Mate series phones have already started mass production. The revenue of TSMC in Q3 and Q4 will resume continuously. Growth, in which Q3 quarter growth is relatively mild, Q4 quarter will reach the highest level in history.

The processor used by Apple's iPhone is still the main growth driver of TSMC. This year, Apple will launch three iPhones, and the processor will be upgraded to A12, which will use TSMC's 7nm process.

TSMC predicts that iPhone handset processor shipments will peak between October and November, but sources say TSMC will also OEM Huawei's Kirin 980 processor, which is also a 7nm process and is expected to be in the Mate 20 series. Starting on the phone.

In addition to orders from Apple and Huawei's mobile phone processors, NVIDIA's next-generation GPU orders will also become the growth driver for TSMC's Q4 quarter. For us, this news is actually more interesting. What is the NVIDIA chip in Q4? At the end of August this year, NVIDIA is said to release a new 12nm process Turing graphics card. It is reasonable to say that the stocking peak should be in the Q3 quarter. If it is a 12nm process chip, it is unlikely that the shipment will peak in the Q4 quarter.

Digitimes also broke the news that TSMC will produce 7nm chips for NVIDIA in Q4 quarter, but it will not be released until early next year. This stocking cycle is much more reasonable.

There are many different opinions about NVIDIA's 7nm chips. The existing analysis believes that the GPU released in Q3 is based on the 12nm process. Both the Volta architecture and the Turing Turing architecture are the same, but there are also sporadic reports that NVIDIA will skip the 12nm process node. Directly introduced 7nm process chip.

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