Will the robot replace 75 million jobs in the next five years, do you have a job?

On September 17, a recent report from the World Economic Forum pointed out that humans currently carry 71% of the world's work tasks, and by 2025, machines will take on more work than humans. Workplace machines and algorithms are rapidly evolving, creating 133 million new jobs, replacing 75 million jobs that will be lost between now and 2022.

The "2018 Future Employment Report ("Report") survey covers more than 300 global companies in a wide range of industry sectors, representing more than 15 million employees, involving 20 developed and emerging economies (total) 70% of global GDP).

This trend will have a profound impact on global labor. According to the Report, the rise of workplace revolutions around the world will dramatically change the way humans work with machines and algorithms. At present, the machine is responsible for 29% of the world's work tasks, and by 2025 will be more than half. The Report is positive about this. It points out that the outlook is still optimistic about the overall number of new jobs. Compared to the lost 75 million jobs, it is expected to add 133 million jobs by 2022.

automation

The Report states that automation will have a disruptive impact on the global workforce and will almost certainly result in dramatic changes in the nature, location, form and duration of jobs that will require close attention from public and private sector leaders.

“About 50% of companies expect that by 2022, automation will reduce the number of full-time employees, nearly 40% of companies expect to expand their workforce, and more than a quarter of companies expect automation to create new jobs within the company.” The report said.

Saadia Zahidi, Director of the New Economic and Social Center of the World Economic Forum, said: "Companies need to complement the automation plan with a comprehensive strengthening strategy. To maintain vitality, differentiation and competitiveness in the age of machines, companies must invest in the development of human capital. It is both morally and economically necessary. Without active action, companies and workers may miss the economic potential of the fourth industrial revolution."

New growth

Although the Report expects a net increase in the number of positions, the nature, location, format and duration of the new position will be significantly different.

As the division of labor between humans and machines continues to develop, workers will need new skill sets. According to the interviewed company, humans currently bear 71% of the total task hours, while the machine is engaged in the remaining 29%. By 2022, it is expected that humans will bear an average of 58% of mission hours, and the share of machines will rise to 42%.

All industries are expected to form a significant skill gap with an average skill instability of 42%, highlighting the severity of helping workers respond to changes in existing positions and future new positions. Certain capabilities will become increasingly important, including proficiency in technology (such as process design and programming) and unique human skills (such as creativity, critical thinking, and persuasion).

The extent of labor expansion and contraction varies from industry to industry. Job turnover rates are expected to vary significantly. For example, in the mining and metals, consumer goods, information and technology industries, the proportion of companies that are expected to cut jobs is higher than that of companies in the professional services industry. Jobs and skill needs in one industry are reduced, but another industry may grow. The Report shows that there are opportunities to coordinate and promote career transformation strategies among different industries.

The report's recommendations are: “Workers must have the right skills to adapt to future employment needs, and the actions of business and policy makers must be coordinated and complementary, investing in the development of human capital.”

According to the report, respondents who participated in the report said that they should respond to the challenges of the new employment situation, three strategies: long-term employment of new employees with new technology-related skills; full automation of work tasks; and retraining existing employees. There are also many companies that expect to assign jobs to professional contractors, freelancers and temporary workers.

Employee retraining

Through a survey of the chief human resources officer and top strategist of 12 companies and 20 developed and emerging economies (70% of global GDP), the Report found that 54% of large company employees need effective skills. Training can fully grasp the growth opportunities brought about by the fourth industrial revolution. At the same time, less than half of the companies surveyed said they plan to retrain their employees in key positions, and only one-third of the companies plan to retrain employees at risk.

Among the companies surveyed, respondents expect that the number of jobs will decrease by approximately 984,000 from the present to 2022, an increase of 1.74 million. Among the 20 economies covered by the report, according to these trends in non-agricultural employees of large companies, it is likely that 75 million jobs will be lost as the division of labor between humans, machines and algorithms changes. It is expected to create 133 million jobs that are more suitable for the new division of labor.

All industries are expected to form a significant skill gap, and the Report expects that the highest demand for skills retraining in 2018-2022 is aviation and tourism. In the ICT, financial services and investment, mining and metals industries, the skills gap is also significant. The transportation industry is the least likely to retrain existing employees, while business leaders in the global health and medical, chemical, advanced materials and biotechnology industries are most likely to retrain employees.

According to the Report, the demand for data analysts and scientists, software and application developers, e-commerce and social media experts will increase in all industries, and these positions are particularly dependent on or benefit from technology. Positions that clearly require “human skills”, such as sales and marketing professionals, innovation managers, and customer service staff, will also see an increase in demand. Jobs that are expected to be oversupplied include white-collar jobs for routine work, such as data entry, accounting, and payrollers.

According to the report, companies will use more contractors to perform specialized tasks, hire workers in a more flexible manner, remotely staff, change the location of the organization's operations, and ensure access to talent.

In addition, job requirements vary from region to region. It is estimated that the projected increase in job requirements in the regions includes: financial and investment advisers in East Asia, the Pacific and Western Europe; assembly and factory workers in Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and Bibi, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa; Electrical engineer, etc.

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